000 AXNT20 KNHC 121749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 992 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 34N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 19N33W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 26W-37W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 22N BETWEEN 39W-45W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 20-28 FT. METEO-FRANCE IS ALSO FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ZONES OF CAPE VERDE AND METEOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 03N30W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 15W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY DRY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN S OF AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 26N94W TO 20N95W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY IF THIS FEATURE W OF 90W. OVER THE SE GULF...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT S OF 25N AND E OF 90W AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND STRAITS...AND THE FAR W CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 17N87W TO 22N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF W CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N AND BETWEEN 71W-78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN AND MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND ENHANCED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN TO 23N81W TO 26N72W. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 31N62W. TO THE E...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE COVERS THE MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 26W-48W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS E OF 26W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE EXPECTED MAINLY E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA