000 AXNT20 KNHC 111743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEP LAYERED 985 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 35N38W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 23N42W TO THE NE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N BETWEEN 36W-41W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-52W. SEAS OF 16 TO 29 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA IN A N SWELL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N12W TO 05N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N40W TO 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MEXICO SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N86W TO 27N82W. AREAS OF SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ANCHORED BY A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N89W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE DISSIPATING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N80W TO 21N83W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 16N88W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND N OF THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. TO THE E...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE TIP OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLAND BETWEEN 63W-66W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE E...WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N79W TO 32N69 WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO 32N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. THE COLD FRONT OF THE SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING THE NE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N16W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ENTER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH CENTER NEAR 25N39W. CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY N OF 20N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA