000 AXNT20 KNHC 110536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEP LAYERED 985 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 34N43W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N43W TO 22N50W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. SEAS OF 11 TO 20 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO 05N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 01N40W TO 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N82W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. COOL AND STABLE AIR SUPPORTS STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE OVER THE SOUTHERN US. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KT AND VEER TO THE E TO NE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO 20N86W TO 18N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT JUST N OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 16N OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT N OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ADVANCE SE TO CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR GRAND CAYMAN. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT NEAR BELIZE WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER SW HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 31N75W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N81W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A 985 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N47W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N43W TO 22N50W TO 19N67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27.5N. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24 N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE WESTERN ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE FRONT. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE SE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY N OF 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO