000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A DEEP LAYERED 987 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 34N43W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N43W TO 24N50W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N66W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WHILE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED WELL N OF THE LOW. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 22W- 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 80W-82W. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT OVER MOST OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 125 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN SW FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... HOWEVER RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 65W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA...AND CUBA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 74W- 82W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS... GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 13N W OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN HAS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS S OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A A DEEP LAYERED GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO N OF PUERTO RICO. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. A 1020 MN HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE ESE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA