000 AXNT20 KNHC 101734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 987 MB LOW IS ANALYZED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N51W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED E OF THE LOW NEAR 34N45W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 24N53W TO 21N63W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN 41W-51W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N AND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 42W- 53W. ALTIMETER DATA DEPICTS SEAS OF 16-27 FT W OF THE FRONT WHILE SEAS 12-16 FT PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 27N83W TO 22N88W THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WITH THIS...AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MAINLY E OF 87W AFFECTING THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 25N89W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 28N99W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 85W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENTERING THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTING AREAS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERED THE W CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING FROM 22N85W TO 16N88W. ISOLATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NE...THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INDUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND W PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE MOVING E AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTS SHOWERS OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE THE REST OF THE ISLAND IS CONVECTION FREE. EXPECT A SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W TO 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT MAINLY W OF 70. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N51W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 25N24W AND 27N02W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY N OF 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA