000 AXNT20 KNHC 100552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 985 MB LOW IS ANALYZED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N54W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED E OF THE LOW NEAR 34N48W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N52W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST STARTING AT 0600 UTC THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 30N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO 04N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N30W TO 02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY...SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY AND EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 30N86W TO 25N89W TO 18N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SE GULF AND S FL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 28N E OF 87W. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE E OF THIS COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE W OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 30N90W TO 28N93W TO 27N98W. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N WITH THIS FRONT AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS ARE OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE EASTERN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SE GULF AND EXIT THE GULF BASIN EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 67W...AND N OF 17N E OF 80W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 30N83W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO N FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. A 985 MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N15W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE W OF 75W OVER THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES GA/FL AND THEN OVER THE ATLC WATERS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY N OF 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO