000 AXNT20 KNHC 091140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 991 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN END OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TO THE WEST OF THIS COLD FRONT N OF 29N EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13 TO 21 FT IN THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO 03N30W TO 01N30W TO 03N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 1S W OF 36W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TX/LA. THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TX...A SQUALL LINE OVER THE NW GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 28N94W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF FROM 26N96W TO 23N98W. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE ATLC TO 27N80W TO NEAR 25N84W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E US TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE N GULF E OF THE SQUALL LINE. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE W OF THE SQUALL LINE AND THE W GULF SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER THE S GULF...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE SE GULF SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE...EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY EARLY SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 15N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. ONCE THESE SHOWERS PASS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N79W AND AS OF 0900 UTC EXTENDS TO THIS LOW CENTER. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. A 991 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N59W SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO 31N58W TO 25N63W TO NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP W OF THIS FRONT N OF 29N EARLY SUN MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N26W ANCHORS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 31N14W TO 27N25W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST E OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 20N60W BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N BAHAMAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC FROM FL/GA ON SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO