000 AXNT20 KNHC 090532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 991 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N62W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WHILE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED WELL N OF THE LOW. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WINDS WILL RESIDE N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION BY 0600 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N20W TO 03N30W TO 02S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2S W OF 36W. OTHERWISE...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TX. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS A SQUALL LINE OVER THE NW GULF THAT AS OF 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N94W TO 28N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N81W TO NEAR 23N85W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E US TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE N GULF E OF THE SQUALL LINE. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE W OF THE SQUALL LINE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE SE GULF. MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE SW GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE AND WILL RESIDE FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SW GULF BY EARLY SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO JUST NW OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 15N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 29N W OF 74W. THE CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY GREATEST OVER THE GULF STREAM. A 991 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N62W SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO 31N58W TO 25N63W TO NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N38W AND 25N23W ANCHORS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N12W TO 27N25W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST E OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E TO NEAR 30N50W TO 20N60W BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE FL E COAST TO THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO