000 AXNT20 KNHC 081731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN OCCLUDED 992 MB LOW IS ANALYZED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 36N63W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W TO 29N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 63W-72W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BOUNDARY OF 32N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO 03N03W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N03W TO 04S38W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE E GULF WATERS MAINLY E OF 84W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N85W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 23N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND W CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH.OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF BY TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE W-NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING ACROSS THE E GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 20 AND W OF 80W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. TO THE E...THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF E HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-70W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 63W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 995 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N67W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 27N40W...THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N22W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA