000 AXNT20 KNHC 081148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 987 MB LOW IS ANALYZED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N69W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT CENTERED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 35N64W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. THE AREA IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N68W AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N WITHIN 270 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT HOWEVER REMAINS GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. S OF 32N THE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD REMAINS GENERALLY N OF 28N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BOUNDARY OF 32N. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 08/0134 UTC INDICATED THESE GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 04N02W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N02W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N27W TO 07N12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N84W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 26N85W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. 23N90W. MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A TREND THAT WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW- LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N- 20N BETWEEN 55W-61W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC MOVES NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... -A 987 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 36N22W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 27N45W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN