000 AXNT20 KNHC 080551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 993 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION CENTERED NEAR 32N70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 33N65W TO 28N55W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N68W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE AREA IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N70W AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 60W-68W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 33N-40N BETWEEN 53W-72W. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT HOWEVER IS GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 08/0134 UTC INDICATED THESE GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 01N04W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 11W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N90W. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 26N85W TO 23N90W. MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA... AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY THAT ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO 13N60W. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N- 20N BETWEEN 55W-61W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC MOVES NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 993 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N70W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 36N24W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N28W TO 28N45W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N41W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN