000 AXNT20 KNHC 072357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE 1800 UTC CENTER LOCATION NEAR 30N72W. A 1510 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS OF STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM. SEAS OF 16 TO 19 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N06E TO 01S05W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17E TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO 03S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 15W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW SUPPORTS A RAPIDLY EASTWARD MOVING 1011 MB LOW OVER THE N GULF THAT AS OF 2100 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 29N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 26N88W TO 24N91W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO 29N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ASIDE FROM WINDS NEAR THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER...GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS COVER THE NE GULF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE NW GULF. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE OVER N FL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE E GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING TX WILL BRING CONVECTION TO THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF A W ATLC STORM IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL END OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE ATLC STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER N OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 987 MB SURFACE LOW AS OF 2100 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH A LARGER AREA OF GALE WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS A SHORT DISTANCE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. AS OF 1800 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE END OF THE OCCLUSION NEAR 30N71W TO 24N72W TO 21N77W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE OCCLUSION OUT OF OUR AREA NEAR 31N69W. AS OF 2100 UTC A SQUALL LINE IS SE OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N67W TO 25N69W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N35W TO 27N49W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N55W TO 30N61W. TWO HIGH CENTERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORING RIDGING OVER THAT SECTION OF THE BASIN. THE WESTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N39W. THE EASTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N19W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE NE THEN E. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO