000 AXNT20 KNHC 071740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FOCUSED ON A 997 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N69W TO 31N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW FROM 30N73W TO 25N74W TO 22N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 24N72W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY N OF 24N AND W OF 68W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 69W-76W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO 03S08W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W TO 03S39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N93W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO 29N90W WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N95W. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W-94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY W OF THE LOW/FRONTS...EASTERLY WINDS E OF 91W AND N OF 26N...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN S OF 26N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN RELATED TO THE SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 20N86W TO 21N78W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE N ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THIS LOW EXTENDS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AT THIS TIME. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 997 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. THIS SYSTEM IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E...A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO 32N63W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO 26N55W TO 27N49W...THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N38W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 HIGH NEAR 26N43W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW IN THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA