000 AXNT20 KNHC 071147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO 30N70W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE AREA IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SE TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N72W PROVIDING MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERALLY N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 62W-77W. THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT IS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AS IT GENERATES A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND A 1031 MB HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS NEAR 39N66W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 07/0152 UTC INDICATED THESE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W TO 01N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SE TO OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W. WHILE NO APPARENT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANALYZED...MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-94W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE SE CONUS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO WESTERN CUBA PROVIDING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT BOUNDARY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH...LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 10N62W. THIS MOISTURE LINGERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 10N-20N BETWEEN 50W-61W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS UNDER GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE WINDS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 38N34W THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N53W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N43W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN