000 AXNT20 KNHC 062349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING SW ATLC... A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DEVELOPING FRONTS/LOWS IS OVER THE FAR SW ATLC FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AND IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...SE FLORIDA...AND CUBA THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 0600 UTC 7 JAN 2016. A SECOND AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 70W-76W AT 0000 UTC 7 JAN 2016 AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW AND ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 7N ALONG 1N6W TO 1N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 1N32W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR 46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE LOUISIANA BORDER TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-28W W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ARE BEING GENERATED BY A LOW IN THE SW ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF IS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER MARYLAND. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SW ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE STRONG WINDS ARE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 83W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW ATLC MOVES NE. A SURFACE LOW WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THU MORNING AND MOVE E ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL WATERS ON THU NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING E ACROSS THE NE GULF ON FRI WHILE TRAILING A SURFACE TROUGH S TO ALONG 23N. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AT 2100 UTC CENTERED NEAR 22N81W TRAILING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 18N86W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS E TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN SE TO OVER HAITI. S OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W...OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-73W...AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N E OF 63W INCLUDING BARBADOS AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN STALL AGAIN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ARE MOVING E TO OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION WILL MOVE E ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT CONTINUING TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON THU INTO FRI. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN SE TO OVER HAITI. THIS IS ENHANCING A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THIS SYSTEM CONSISTS OF AT 2100 UTC...A DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N75W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO THE 1013 MB LOW OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW IS SW OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N79W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG 27N73W TO 26N61W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N69W 26N75W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 67W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS TRAILING AT 1800 UTC A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W ALONG 28N56W TO 26N61W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH JUST SE OF MADIERA ISLANDS TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N38W TO 25N50W. THE 1010 MB LOW WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT PASSING BEYOND 32N69W EARLY THU ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE 1012 MB LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT THEN PASS THROUGH 32N69W ON THU EVENING TRAILING A COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS ON THU REACHING HISPANIOLA ON THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND 32N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY FRI THEN REACH FROM 32N62W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW