000 AXNT20 KNHC 061743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N81W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW AND CROSSING JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND A POSITION NEAR 28N76W BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW N ATLC N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE OF THE LOW CENTER...AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND BARBS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... BOTH...THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS ARE CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 01N13W. THEN...THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N13W TO 02N23W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 27N86W TO 24N87W. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD CROSSING FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A NW-W FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA IS PRODUCING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF AND A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1500 UTC MAP EXTENDING FROM 28N92W TO 28N95W TO 27N97W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STRONG E WINDS IN THE E GULF WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N81W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW AND CROSSING JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY AFFECTED THESE ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. ...HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W ALONG 25N TO 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N75W TO ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW NEAR HAVANA CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR HAVANA CUBA. THE EASTERN LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE ON THU PRODUCING ALSO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W BY THU EVENING. THE WESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY FRI. A TROUGH LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST N OF 30N IS FUNNELING STRONG NE WINDS N OF 30N W OF 80W PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN LOW AND A 1037 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES IS PRODUCING AND AREA OF STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 27N W OF 77W. THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 31N53W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED EASTERN LOW. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND BUILDING SEAS. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N39W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR