000 AXNT20 KNHC 061047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W ATLANTIC GALE... A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE W ATLANTIC DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW NE AS IT DEEPENS. THIS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 69W-74W BY THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N01W TO 00N14W TO 03N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N22W TO 00N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE US. TO THE SW...A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N87W TO 23N86W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MAINLY E OF 87W AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 86W WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL E OF 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THIS AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N81W TO 16N85W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE E...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW TO 23N66W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 31N56W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N39W...A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W...AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA TO MOVE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING. CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH THIS LOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA