000 AXNT20 KNHC 060540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W ATLANTIC GALE... A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE W ATLANTIC DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW NE AS IT DEEPENS. THIS WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 69W-74W BY THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO ALONG 00N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE US. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 86W AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 86W WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL E OF 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N80W TO 16N85W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO 15N87W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE E...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA WILL MOVE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING AND GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THIS LOW. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE OF THE LOW TO 26N67W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 31N57W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 72W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N39W...A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W...AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 27N26W TO 28N13W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER N CUBA TO MOVE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING. CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA