000 AXNT20 KNHC 051729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... WEST ATLANTIC GALE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N62W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. A SECOND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N67W WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS AND ARE OBSERVED OVER AND EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE MIAMI RADAR. SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT ARE S-SW 20-30 KT NORTH OF 27N. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ARE N-NE 20-25 KT ONLY NORTH OF 30N. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT ARE NW- NE 20-25 KT NORTH OF 25N. THE TWO FRONTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MERGE BY WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE EAST OF 67W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY PULL OUT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DEEPEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NEW UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH REACHES THE SURFACE LOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD RETAIN ITS FRONTAL FEATURES...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...DESPITE ITS QUITE LOW LATITUDE OF OCCURRENCE. CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT GHANA NEAR 05N03W TO 03N12W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO THE EQUATOR AT 37W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF ONE OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONTS THUS FAR THIS WINTER. NE SURFACE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE OCCURRING UNIFORMLY OVER THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS SEEN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. THESE ARE BEING OBSERVED PRIMARILY THROUGH THE SABANCUY RADAR IN THE YUCATAN AND THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL IN THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY THURSDAY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK 1014 MB FRONTAL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO 17N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AS SEEN BY THE LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS AND THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY 10 KT NE...WHILE WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE 10-15 KT E TO SE. SURFACE WINDS PEAK AROUND 20 KT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY FADE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LIKEWISE...THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AREA MOVES WESTWARD TO REACH HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDUCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. BY THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE BY ENHANCED LOW TO MID- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION IN SPECIAL FEATURE REGARDING WEST ATLANTIC GALE BEING PREDICTED. ELSEWHERE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS WESTWARD TO 31N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EXCEPT FOR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY 10-20 KT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. HIGHEST WINDS ARE NE 20- 25 KT BETWEEN 10-20N EAST OF 50W. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES DURING THE NEXT DAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CWL