000
AXNT20 KNHC 051109
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N07W
TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF 18W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
MAINLY S OF 23N WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W WHILE ANOTHER PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW
REACHING CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF NICARAGUA
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 62W-
68W. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND THE SURFACE LOW TO BECOME WEAK AND THEN
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. 
  
...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS INDUCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 28N80W TO
31N72W. E OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM NEAR 22N78W TO
26N71W TO 31N65W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N40W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MERGE WITH
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA