000 AXNT20 KNHC 042343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 05N08W AND CONTINUES TO 02N20W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 04S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-05N BETWEEN 07W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA...FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N100W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF FROM 17N- 24N BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS AROUND THE ISLAND MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N62W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA