000 AXNT20 KNHC 041751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA NEAR 02N10E AND EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC TO 02N00W TO 02N10W TO 01N25W TO 01S30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 03W AND 21W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE US AND THE BAHAMAS WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE FL KEYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE OVER THE PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF THE CUBA COAST THAT REMAINS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXIT THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLIDE E WHICH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS VEERING TO THE E TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONTS. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OVER W JAMAICA...THE NICARAGUA COASTAL AREAS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS MAY SPREAD WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATER TONIGHT. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NASSAU...BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N78W TO 30N83W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR MAJOR WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 31N IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ANCHORED BY 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N38W. THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N W OF 60W...MAINLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 50W...FRESH E TO NE WINDS S OF 25 E OF 50W. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 60W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW OF THE PRIMARY FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO