000 AXNT20 KNHC 041057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 02N. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 02N TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 13W...01N22W AND 01N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 05N10W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 10W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 03N20W...TO 05N10W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE STATE OF GEORGIA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 31N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W... TO 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES COLD AGAIN AT 25N80W AND IT CONTINUES TO 23N85W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 63W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N70W...TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN BERMUDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO CEILINGS/VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA...IN MISSISSIPPI AND IN ALABAMA. FLORIDA...MVFR AT MARATHON KEY AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. NO CEILINGS/VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD FROM 15N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N68W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 76W EASTWARD...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 14N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO COSTA RICA. WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE AS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. A SECOND TROUGH ULTIMATELY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO PANAMA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS DAY ONE IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. HISPANIOLA IS COVERED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...FOR DAY ONE. DAY TWO STARTS WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEING ABSORBED INTO A RIDGE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA OPENS INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...THAT REMAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 01N38W TO 08N46W 16N53W 23N54W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N07W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N36W...TO 25N63W...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT