000
AXNT20 KNHC 031738 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 02N09E TO 02N00W TO 02N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N25W TO 01S36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 03N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 06W AND
02W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL KEYS
NEAR 25N81W TO 24N87W TO 21N94W TO 18N94W. 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S TX IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS N OF
THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE W TO SW WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N94W AND
30N83W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL HELP TRANSITION
THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE E GULF INTO A COLD
FRONT...AND FORCE IT SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF...THEN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE E GULF S OF 29N AND N OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH. 
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A LACK OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS
PATCHES OF SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND
SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND
77W. LIGHT WINDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR N
OF THE FRONT. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE CONFINED TO THE S-CENTRAL PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
TONIGHT. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FL KEYS NEAR 25N81W.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 31N76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM S OF THE
WARM FRONT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN N OF 28N W OF THE SURFACE LOW.
JUST EAST OF THIS AREA...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
31N56W TO 29N63W TO 29N67W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N IS
DOMINATED BY RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N33W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADES COVER THE ATLC S OF
THIS RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE ATLC WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WITH THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
E OVER THE E US AND WILL SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO