000 AXNT20 KNHC 031157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N9W...TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N14W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO 02S43W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES THAT ARE FROM 86W WESTWARD...BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 25N80W TO 25N70W BEYOND 30N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 19N NORTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N62W AND 29N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO 23N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N94W AND TO 18N94W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 29N74W 28N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WITHIN 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N70W TO 23N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.65 IN BERMUDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... KMZG HAS BEEN CHANGING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. KBBF HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR AND VICE VERSA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AT...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGRY...KATP... KIKT...KIPN...AND KVOA. IFR CONDITIONS AT...KBQX. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR MOSTLY/MVFR MORE TO THE WEST AND INLAND AND DRIZZLE AT WESLACO IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IFR AND LIGHT RAIN AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS. IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...VFR EVERYWHERE/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS FROM MARIANNA WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN IN SEVERAL PAST OBSERVATIONS AT APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE AND VFR/NO CEILINGS NOW. LIGHT RAIN IN PERRY. IFR IN BROOKSVILLE. VFR IN THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SARASOTA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA AND IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM SIX HOURS AGO ARE COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL-DEFINED NOW. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W. BROAD AND MORE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N60W 15N72W 12N73W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF VENEZUELA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START TO BECOME WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE PUERTO RICO-TO-COLOMBIA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND IT BECOMES COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED WITH TIME. A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-COSTA RICA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE CUBA-TO-COSTA RICA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AND ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A RIDGE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE DURING DAY TWO...WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOMETIMES SOUTHWESTERLY... WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A COL POINT EVENTUALLY IS ON TOP OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. DAY TWO CONSISTS OF MORE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE END RESULT IS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND... AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 18N63W 20N57W 14N45W 16N29W... BEYOND 18N17W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 18N63W-TO-18N17W AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...TO 30N20W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N31W...TO 27N50W 26N61W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT