000 AXNT20 KNHC 030605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 26.5N82W TO 22N94.5W TO 18.5N93.5W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 19N TO 20.5N TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N9W...TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N14W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO 02S43W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N74W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W AND TO 18N94W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N66W AND TO 26N80W AT THE COAST OF FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N91W TO 28N84W TO 29N77W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.65 IN BERMUDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE OIL PLATFORM SITES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N74W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THESOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERNNICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N62W 16N70W 15N73W 11N74W...INCLUDING MOVING FROM COLOMBIA AND ACROSS MUCH OF VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESETERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N74W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 03/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AT 03/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START TO BECOME WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE PUERTO RICO-TO-COLOMBIA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND IT BECOMES COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED WITH TIME. A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-COSTA RICA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE CUBA-TO-COSTA RICA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AND ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A RIDGE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE DURING DAY TWO...WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOMETIMES SOUTHWESTERLY... WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A COL POINT EVENTUALLY IS ON TOP OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. DAY TWO CONSISTS OF MORE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE END RESULT IS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND... AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 18N63W 20N57W 14N45W 16N29W... BEYOND 18N17W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 18N63W-TO-18N17W AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N33W...TO 26N52W 25N64W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT