000
AXNT20 KNHC 022312
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 03N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 03S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 02W-12W
...AND FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 24W-29W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N94W 18N94W. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF WELL N OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION.  
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS MOSTLY S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W...NE VENEZUELA...NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...W PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 77W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 14N73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO S
FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N34W. THIS
RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA