000 AXNT20 KNHC 021749 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY...WHEN THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 05N09E TO 05N01W TO 04N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N20W TO 00S30W TO 02S36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 02W AND 27W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL FL...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N83W TO 24N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND THE FRONT SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NW OF A LINE FROM 25N97W TO 29N83W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP TRANSITION THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE E GULF TO A COLD FRONT WITH THE FRONT THEN PROGRESSING S OVER THE SE GULF AND S FL LATE SUNDAY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MAINLY N OF 14N OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 29N75W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N33W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 27N...MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND LIGHT WINDS FROM 27N TO 31N E OF 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO