000 AXNT20 KNHC 021203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W 23N93W...AND THEN STATIONARY FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST- TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO THE FRONT... FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF NIGERIA NEAR 05N05E...THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N9W... TO 03N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N15W TO 02N20W AND 01N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N60W 14N46W 18N26W BEYOND 18N16W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W...TO 24N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE... ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 26N82W 23N90W 19N95W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF... KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KATP...AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IFR AND RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS. RAIN CONTINUES TO VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND TO BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. VFR ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...VFR/ NO CEILINGS. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN BROOKSVILLE. IFR/EARLIER LIFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN THE TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...RAIN AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RAIN AND IFR IN SARASOTA...LIFR AND FOG IN PUNTA GORDA...LIFR/IFR IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...LIFR IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL- DEFINED NOW AS COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA/COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START WILL DEVELOP INTO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE... WITH A 15N61W 15N70W 11N78W TROUGH. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO...WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS A BIT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENDS UP BEING CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY FORMS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N17W TO 15N43W TO 15N53W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 16N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE TROUGH IS IN AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 28N22W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N34W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 28N34W TO 28N52W 27N66W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT