000 AXNT20 KNHC 020507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 28N82W 25N90W...AND THEN STATIONARY FROM 25N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST- TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 02N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N12W TO 02N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...TO 01S47W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 08N58W 18N29W...BEYOND 17N16W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS...BECOMING WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N90W TO 23N94W TO 18N94W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 27N82W 23N92W 18N95W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KHHV...KVAF... KEMK...KHQI...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS. RAIN CONTINUES TO VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND TO ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. RAIN IS SPOTTY IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...LIGHT RAIN IN GALLIANO AND AT THE LOUIS ARMSTRONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. VFR ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN BROOKSVILLE. LIFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA...IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...MVFR IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N78W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 02/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FOR BARAHONA AT 02/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA/COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START WILL DEVELOP INTO NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE... WITH A 15N61W 15N70W 11N78W TROUGH. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO...WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS A BIT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENDS UP BEING CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO BECOMES SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY FORMS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N17W TO 15N43W TO 14N53W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR 16N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N25W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 28N33W TO 28N56W 26N72W...AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT