000 AXNT20 KNHC 011738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION PORTIONS OF THE FRONT TO A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THESE FRONTS WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE W GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE NW WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING OVER THE SW GULF FROM 19N TO 24N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 05N06E TO 05N01W TO 03N12W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N20W TO 01S26W TO 02S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N83W TO 27N90W TO 24N95W TO 18N94W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SE OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH IS GOING TO HELP TRANSITION THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO A COLD FRONT AND FORCE IT E ACROSS THE GULF LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND A GALE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE SW GULF THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 25N...MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS W OF 75W N OF 25N...AND LIGHT WINDS FROM 25N TO 31N E OF 75W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE GA/N FL OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM 30N70W TO CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NW OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO