000 AXNT20 KNHC 312351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS UNTIL 01/1800 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 01/1800 UTC WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 21N TO 25N W OF 96W. SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT ARE FORECAST. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BEYOND 02/1800 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 04N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N94W 21N95W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 25N92W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF FRONT OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF FRONT FROM 25N- 27N BETWEEN 84W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A GALE TO BE OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS MOSTLY N OF THE ISLAND. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W... THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W...AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER AND AROUND HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N49W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N20W TO 28N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE E OF N FL AND GA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ATLC E OF FL/GA FRI NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N60W TO S FL BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA