000 AXNT20 KNHC 311741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 25W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N86W TO 27N90W TO 25N94W TO 21N95W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N95W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE SW GULF. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR NW OF THE FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 29N50W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 30N28W TO 29N36W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE E OF N FL AND GA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ATLC E OF FL/GA FRI NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N60W TO S FL BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO