000 AXNT20 KNHC 311204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 06N10W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO 02N31W 02N33W AND 02N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 28W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...BEYOND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO 27N90W 25N94W...TO 19N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. DENSE COLD AIR WILL PUSH WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT...WITH THE FRONT TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...TO FLORIDA BY THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...CLEARING THE SKIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N90W 28N87W 30N85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS... ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 27N83W TO 23N90W TO 19N93W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMDJ AND KDLP. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV... KEIR...AND KSPR. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES... KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT... KGRY....AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEY. THE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE CEILING CONDITIONS IMPROVE THE MORE THAT YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS AND LEADING TO PALACIOS...BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND GALVESTON. VFR FOR THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE...TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE/NEW IBERIA/ PATTERSON/...IFR IN GALLIANO AND IN PORT FOURCHON AND IN BOOTHVILLE...IFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR/LIFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...LIFR/ IFR. FLORIDA...LIFR FROM PERRY WESTWARD...INCLUDING AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG...AND IN BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. LIFR CONTINUES TO PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO 18N FROM 70W WESTWARD...INCLUDING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA INTO VENEZUELA...AND BEYOND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 16N75W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.41 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 16N75W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND AT THE START...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY AND MORE WESTERLY WIND BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 440 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE DEVELOPED DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 800 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO...DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 26N FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N19W EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N59W...JUST TO EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE NORTH OF 08N58W 10N40W 11N28W...BEYOND 14N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N21W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 31N21W TO 30N30W AND TO 30N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 25N30W 27N43W AND 30N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N44W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N57W...TO 30N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT