000 AXNT20 KNHC 310553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 07N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N14W TO 04N20W 02N30W AND 02N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 29W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 27N90W 26N92W...TO 26N95W AND 20N96W. DENSE COLD AIR WILL PUSH THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...TO FLORIDA BY THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...CLEARING THE SKIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 27N83W TO 24N90W TO 21N90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMDJ. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KEIR...KSPR...KMIS... AND KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...KVQT... KATP...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR/VFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS...VFR FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE...TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...AND TO GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PATTERSON...IFR IN GALLIANO AND IN PORT FOURCHON AND IN BOOTHVILLE...IFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...VFR IN PASCAGOULA...IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ALABAMA...MVFR AND RAIN/ LIGHT RAIN. FLORIDA...IFR AND HEAVY RAIN FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIFR AND RAIN FROM MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN TO CRESTVIEW...LIFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN MARIANNA...IN TALLAHASSEE AND IN PERRY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 80W WESTWARD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 18N74W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 80W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.41 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W TO 18N74W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 31/0000 UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AT 31/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND AT THE START...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY AND MORE WESTERLY WIND BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 440 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE DEVELOPED DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 800 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO...DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 26N FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N18W EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 16N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N57W...JUST TO EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS WITHIN AT LEAST 1000 NM TO THE NORTH OF 08N59W 11N40W...AND WITHIN 600 NM TO 700 NM TO THE NORTH OF 11N40W 12N30W BEYOND 12N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 31N24W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 31N24W TO 30N30W AND TO 30N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W 29N40W 32N65W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N43W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N55W...TO 31N66W AND 30N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT