000 AXNT20 KNHC 301159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 05N15W 04N22W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 02S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W...TO 26N92W AND 22N95W. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. LATE ON WEDNESDAY TODAY. WHAT IS A WARM FRONT NOW WILL RE- TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA LATE ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 28N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 19N93W TO 24N90W TO 30N84W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE PLATFORM SITES. ISOLATED AREAS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY...IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS AND IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...AND TO GALVESTON AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS...LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...IFR AND HEAVY RAIN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LIFR IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER. ALABAMA...LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...LIFR AND FOG FROM PERRY WESTWARD. IFR FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO BROOKSVILLE...AND FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 18N60W...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM...THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO HAITI...BEYOND 18N60W...LEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...DURING DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD ABOUT 720 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 540 NM TO 620 NM DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N15W...TO 16N26W...TO A 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 08N58W 13N40W 14N22W 15N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N41W TO 30N50W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N50W TO 31N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W 29N40W 32N65W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB MOROCCO 34N04W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N20W 28N40W AND 28N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N67W 28N78W...TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT