000 AXNT20 KNHC 300559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 09N17W 04N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N18W 05N21W 03N25W 02N28W 03N32W 02N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHAT USED TO BE A COLD FRONT FIRST...AND THEN A STATIONARY FRONT 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS A WARM FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 26N90W AND 22N94W. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. LATE ON WEDNESDAY TODAY. WHAT IS A WARM FRONT NOW WILL RE- TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FLORIDA LATE ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 20N96W TO 23N90W TO 29N83W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBQX... KGVX...KGLS...KVAF...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP... KMDJ...KMIS...AND KDLP. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KEMK...KEIR... KSPR...AND KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR CONDITIONS INLAND IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIFR AND IFR AND RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/ PALACIOS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO GALVESTON AND IN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES AS FAR AWAY AS HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...LIGHT RAIN IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW IBERIA...MVFR IN PATTERSON...LIFR IN PORT FOURCHON...IFR IN GALLIANO...MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE...MVFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LIGHT RAIN IN HAMMOND. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM GULFPORT EASTWARD. ALABAMA...MVFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIFR AND RAIN IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO...LIGHT RAIN IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW... MVFR AND RAIN IN THE PANAMA CITY...MVFR IN APALACHICOLA...LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO HAITI...BEYOND 18N60W...LEADING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AT 29/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AT 30/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...DURING DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD ABOUT 720 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 540 NM TO 620 NM DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N15W...TO 16N26W...TO A 17N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N60W 10N40W 13N30W 15N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 27N37W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 31N41W TO 30N49W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N49W TO 30N55W AND 31N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N39W 28N46W 32N63W. WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO 33N04W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N21W 28N40W AND 28N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N69W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT