000 AXNT20 KNHC 290559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE 10 TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON NEAR 02N10E...TO 02N07W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N07W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 03S42W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...TO 20N93W... AND INTO THE ISTHMUS TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN INTERIOR PARTS OF MEXICO...TO 23N100W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N87W BEYOND TALLAHASSEE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KHHV...KVAF... KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY... KMDJ...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASCAGOULA. AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA... IFR IN APALACHICOLA...AND TALLAHASSEE WITH NEARBY LIGHTNING. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A BROAD AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN THE AREA OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N FROM 80W EASTWARD...AND FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.41 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...AND FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD... FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST- TO-WEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 28W...BETWEEN 42W AND 72W. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 30N60W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W. THE TROUGH LEADS INTO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N22W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N30W...TO 28N47W...AND TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N64W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT