000
AXNT20 KNHC 282343
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING 29/1800 UTC FROM 11N-
13.5N BETWEEN 71W-76W WITH SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT EXPECTED. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                   

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N10E TO 01N09W...WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 05S38W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...       

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE N GULF NEAR 30N87W TO 25N90W TO 18N94W.
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SW GULF. MAINLY FRESH
NW WINDS ARE NOW W OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE
WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO SW GULF WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS A WARM
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. 


CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                           

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE
WINDS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N66W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N21W TO 28N30W TO 29N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE E OF N FL/GA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SE
US. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO