000 AXNT20 KNHC 281153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N92W 25N93W 21N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 94W...AND WEST-TO- NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET. THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W...IN ABOUT 9 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON NEAR 03N10E...TO 03N06W...CURVING TO 07N13W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 01S17W 03S22W 03S30W 03S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO 25N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N... TO 22N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N92W 25N94W 23N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...KBQX... KGVX...KXIH...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KVOA... KMIS...AND KDLP. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...K9F2...KAXO AND AND KXPY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS...ALREADY LISTED IN THE OIL PLATFORM SITES SECTION. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER. ALABAMA...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN FROM MILTON TO PENSACOLA. IFR IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. MVFR IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW. IFR IN SARASOTA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST OBSERVATION FROM 28/0100 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR CONDITIONS...IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO... EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 24N20W TO 12N32W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 30N16W AND 27N17W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 22N17W 15N24W 12N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 23N20W 18N40W 19N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N24W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N42W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N54W...BEYOND 32N76W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT