000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N93W 25N95W 23N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMEROON NEAR 03N10E...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 02E...TO 02N06W...TO 01N09W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 01N09W TO 03S25W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N99W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO 25N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N100W IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX... KGLS...KXIH...KVAF...KGUL...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KEIR... AND KMIS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGHB AND FOG... KDLP...AND KXPY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS FROM BAY CITY TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN. LOUISIANA...IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN IN GULFPORT. ALABAMA...IFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE PANHANDLE FROM CRESTVIEW-DESTIN LINE WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN NEAR MILTON. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND...AND 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.31 IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST OBSERVATION FROM 28/0100 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE LAST OBSERVATION FOR BARAHONA FROM 28/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO... EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 26N20W TO 13N31W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N16W AND 26N18W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 23N17W 17N23W 10N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 24N18W 19N30W 20N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N17W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N38W...AND TO 28N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N45W 2753W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N53W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N61W...TO 30N66W...AND BEYOND 32N77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT