000 AXNT20 KNHC 271714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-79W WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 28/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 27/2100 UTC FROM 29N95W TO 24N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 02N10W TO 01N20W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 08W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS. 15-25 KT SW RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N103W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER TEXAS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER E TEXAS WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 09 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A GALE NW OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WITH CONVECTION. 15-20 KT SW WINDS WILL PERSIST SE OF FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N39W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N15W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W TO 21N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. METEO-FRANCE IS CALLING FOR GALE CONDITIONS E OF FRONT N OF 30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIP S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA