000 AXNT20 KNHC 271203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 17 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 15-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N95W TO 24N98W. EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GABON NEAR 01N10E...TO 02N07E. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N07E...TO 02N02W AND 02N06W...TO 01N10W 03N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W... TO 02S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND EVENTUALLY TO EASTERN HONDURAS. SOUTH-TO- SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IN TEXAS...MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX... KGLS...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGRY.....KIKT...AND KMIS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KGHB...KHQI...AND KDLP. ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W...TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N69W 15N66W BEYOND 18N60W....ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH ONLY WILL COVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND IT WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 420 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. WESTWARD FIRST AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N18W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 11N34W 20N20W...BEYOND 32N08W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N60W 20N50W AND 16N40W...TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS NEAR 11N34W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W...TO 23N23W AND 22N30W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N30W TO 22N40W AND 22N46W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO- FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THIS COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 24N20W 19N34W 19N60W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N64W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 51W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT