000
AXNT20 KNHC 261753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA INFLUENCING THE SW NORTH ATLC. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING
FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 01N06W TO 04N22W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 18W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             

A COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND OVER W TEXAS. 15-20 KT SW RETURN
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER N MEXICO AND ARIZONA WITH AXIS ALONG 109W N OF 20N
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER TEXAS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER N MEXICO AND TEXAS WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 36 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM SW LOUISIANA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.
25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NW OF FRONT. 15-20 KT SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A GALE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE 20-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                           
PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W.
ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. A
1008 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N23W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N21W TO 24N30W TO 23N40W
TO 25N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
METEO-FRANCE IS CALLING FOR GALE CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA