000 AXNT20 KNHC 261205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 42-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 25N94W TO 22N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...IN THE EASTERN PART OF IRVING...AND IN MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 06N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N11W TO 06N12W...TO 02N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR AT 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 09W AND 11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N86W 22N91W 18N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KMZG... KGUL...KXIH...KEMK...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...AND KMIS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...KBQX... KHHV...KVAF...KGRY...KEIR...AND K9F2. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBVE...KDLP... AND KAXO. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. LIFR AND IFR IN THE MIDDLE GULF COAST PLAINS. IFR AND MVFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOUISIANA...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG FROM MARIANNA WESTWARD...AND IN PERRY. LIFR IN KVDF TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND KBKV IN BROOKSVILLE...IN SARASOTA ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR TO 13N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 84W EASTWARD...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 81W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AREA OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N69W15N64W 17N60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB AND FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN GUADELOUPE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS LONG AS THE CURRENT 13N74W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE WESTWARD FIRST AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 23N25W AND 16N30W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N69W 17N57W 18N43W 16N30W 27N14W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N30W 24N40W 28N52W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE METEO- FRANCE MARINE FORECAST ARE RELATED TO THIS COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 30N21W 24N30W 24N43W 25N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N55W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N63W...32N73W...BEYOND THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN ALGERIA NEAR 28N07W...TO 22N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT