000
AXNT20 KNHC 251717
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NW PORTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-79W.
SEAS OF 12-17 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N01W TO 05N20W TO 04N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 18W-
41W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                         

A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE
PRESENT OVER THE BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N93W TO 19N93W. NO CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS APPROACHING THE NW GULF. WITH THIS...LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THIS AREA
MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 89W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE APPROACHING THE NW
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...       

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO
EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...A GALE WARNING
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING LOW TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...  

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                          

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N63W. E OF THIS HIGH...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
JUST ENTERED OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION...ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N49W TO 29N37W TO 31N29W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF OUR AREA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N32W TO 29N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVE S OF 31N WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA