000 AXNT20 KNHC 251130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND FROM 10.5N TO 11N E OF 76W. SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N01W TO 03N20W TO 02N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 14W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE SE PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE W GULF NEAR 28N94W SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N- CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N61W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS W OF 65W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS E OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 09N51W TO 05N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AZORES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM THE NORTH FROM 31N37W TO 31N45W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N29W TO 27N36W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME WITH THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...W TO SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT TO 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC S OF 31N WITH STRONG WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO