000 AXNT20 KNHC 250532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N00W TO 00N10W TO 02N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND STREAMING N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE W GULF NEAR 27N94W SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO 19N91W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST BEFORE MOVING N AND ONSHORE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE MORNING SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N62W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS W OF 70W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 09N50W TO 05N51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AZORES SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 33N30W TO 30N32W TO 27N36W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...W TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT N OF THE TROUGH TO A COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N OVER THE E ATLC WITH STRONG W TO SW WINDS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG NW WINDS N OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO