000
AXNT20 KNHC 241133 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14.5N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY
...INCREASING TO 11 TO 16 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.   

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N05W TO 03N20W TO 03N30W TO 03N40W
TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 13W AND 31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                         

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND STREAMING N WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FL
PANHANDLE BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE W GULF NEAR
27N94W SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US WHICH WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF CONVECTION OVER THE
N CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BASIN.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...       

THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...  

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                          

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N56W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS W OF
70W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS E OF 70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 08N44W TO 03N45W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING SE ACROSS THE AZORES SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 30 N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N OVER THE E ATLC WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO