000
AXNT20 KNHC 231141
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...INCREASING TO 11
TO 17 FT BY THURSDAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.   

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 05N30W TO 03N40W TO THE
COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                         

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING SW TO NE FROM VERA CRUZ
TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THESE DISTURBANCES SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...AND
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI COASTS. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO 18N92W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT N OF THE
GULF RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...       

THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...  

DRY AIR IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                          

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 77W TO
THE FL COAST. A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
AND FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE N FL AND GA.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO